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1000 Titel
  • Can we be certain about future land use change in Europe? A multi-scenario, integrated-assessment analysis
1000 Autor/in
  1. Holman, Ian |
  2. Brown, Calum |
  3. Janes, V. |
  4. Sandars, Daniel |
1000 Erscheinungsjahr 2016
1000 Art der Datei
1000 Publikationstyp
  1. Artikel |
1000 Online veröffentlicht
  • 2016-12-09
1000 Erschienen in
1000 Quellenangabe
  • 151:126-135
1000 Copyrightjahr
  • 2016
1000 Lizenz
1000 Verlagsversion
  • https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2016.12.001 |
1000 Ergänzendes Material
  • https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X16302645?via%3Dihub#s0075 |
1000 Publikationsstatus
1000 Begutachtungsstatus
1000 Sprache der Publikation
1000 Abstract/Summary
  • The global land system is facing unprecedented pressures from growing human populations and climatic change. Understanding the effects these pressures may have is necessary to designing land management strategies that ensure food security, ecosystem service provision and successful climate mitigation and adaptation. However, the number of complex, interacting effects involved makes any complete understanding very difficult to achieve. Nevertheless, the recent development of integrated modelling frameworks allows for the exploration of the co-development of human and natural systems under scenarios of global change, potentially illuminating the main drivers and processes in future land system change. Here, we use one such integrated modelling framework (the CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform) to investigate the range of projected outcomes in the European land system across climatic and socio-economic scenarios for the 2050s. We find substantial consistency in locations and types of change even under the most divergent conditions, with results suggesting that climate change alone will lead to a contraction in the agricultural and forest area within Europe, particularly in southern Europe. This is partly offset by the introduction of socioeconomic changes that change both the demand for agricultural production, through changing food demand and net imports, and the efficiency of agricultural production. Simulated extensification and abandonment in the Mediterranean region is driven by future decreases in the relative profitability of the agricultural sector in southern Europe, owing to decreased productivity as a consequence of increased heat and drought stress and reduced irrigation water availability. The very low likelihood (< 33% probability) that current land use proportions in many parts of Europe will remain unchanged suggests that future policy should seek to promote and support the multifunctional role of agriculture and forests in different European regions, rather than focusing on increased productivity as a route to agricultural and forestry viability.
1000 Sacherschließung
lokal Climate change
lokal Impacts
lokal Uncertainty
lokal Integrated assessment
lokal Socio-economic change
1000 Fachgruppe
  1. Agrarwissenschaften |
  2. Umweltwissenschaften |
1000 Fächerklassifikation (DDC)
1000 Liste der Beteiligten
  1. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5263-7746|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/creator/QnJvd24sIENhbHVt|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/creator/SmFuZXMsIFYu|https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6560-8258
1000 Label
1000 Förderer
  1. Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) |
  2. European Commission |
1000 Fördernummer
  1. BB/K010301/1; BB/N00485X/1
  2. 244031
1000 Förderprogramm
  1. MACSUR knowledge hub within FACCE Joint Programming Initiative for Agriculture, Climate Change, and Food Security
  2. Seventh Framework Programme; CLIMSAVE Project; Climate change integrated assessment methodology for cross-sectoral adaptation and vulnerability in Europe
1000 Dateien
1000 Förderung
  1. 1000 joinedFunding-child
    1000 Förderer Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) |
    1000 Förderprogramm MACSUR knowledge hub within FACCE Joint Programming Initiative for Agriculture, Climate Change, and Food Security
    1000 Fördernummer BB/K010301/1; BB/N00485X/1
  2. 1000 joinedFunding-child
    1000 Förderer European Commission |
    1000 Förderprogramm Seventh Framework Programme; CLIMSAVE Project; Climate change integrated assessment methodology for cross-sectoral adaptation and vulnerability in Europe
    1000 Fördernummer 244031
1000 Objektart article
1000 Beschrieben durch
1000 @id frl:6413301.rdf
1000 Erstellt am 2019-03-14T14:25:21.048+0100
1000 Erstellt von 284
1000 beschreibt frl:6413301
1000 Bearbeitet von 284
1000 Zuletzt bearbeitet Thu Jan 30 17:19:41 CET 2020
1000 Objekt bearb. Thu Mar 14 14:42:31 CET 2019
1000 Vgl. frl:6413301
1000 Oai Id
  1. oai:frl.publisso.de:frl:6413301 |
1000 Sichtbarkeit Metadaten public
1000 Sichtbarkeit Daten public
1000 Gegenstand von

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