61-99-1-SM.pdf 214,20KB
1000 Titel
  • Development of methods for the probabilistic assessment of climate change impacts on crop production
1000 Autor/in
  1. Rötter, Reimund P. |
  2. Semenov, Mikhael A. |
1000 Erscheinungsjahr 2014
1000 Publikationstyp
  1. Artikel |
1000 Online veröffentlicht
  • 2014-07-03
1000 Erschienen in
1000 Quellenangabe
  • 3:C4.4
1000 Verlagsversion
  • |
1000 Publikationsstatus
1000 Begutachtungsstatus
1000 Sprache der Publikation
1000 Abstract/Summary
  • Various attempts have been made to determine the relative importance of uncertainties in climate change impact assessments stemming from climate projections and crop models, respectively, and to analyse yield outputs probabilistically. For example, in the ENSEMBLES project, probabilistic climate projections (Harris et al. 2010) have been applied in conjunction with impact response surfaces (IRS), constructed by using impact models, to estimate the future likelihood (risk) of exceeding critical thresholds of crop yield impact (see, Fronzek et al., 2011, for an explanation of the method). In this task, we aimed to further develop and operationalize these methods and testing them in different case study regions in Europe. The method combines results of a sensitivity analysis of (one or more) impact model(s) with probabilistic projections of future temperature and precipitation (Fronzek et al., 2011). Such an overlay is one way of portraying probabilistic estimates of future impacts. By further accounting for the uncertainties in crop and biophysical parameters (using perturbed parameter approaches), the outcome represents an ensemble of impact risk estimates, encapsulating both climate and crop model uncertainties.
1000 Sacherschließung
lokal Climate Change
lokal sensitivity
lokal models
lokal Agriculture
lokal Food Security
lokal ensembles
lokal impact response surface
1000 Fächerklassifikation (DDC)
1000 DOI 10.4126/FRL01-006413584 |
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1000 Label
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