Predicting range shifts of Asian elephants under global change

  1. Kanagaraj, Rajapandian ORCID logo
  2. Bastos Araújo, Miguel ORCID logo
  3. Barman, Rathin
  4. Davidar, Priya ORCID logo
  5. De, Rahul
  6. Digal, Dinesh K.
  7. Gopi, G. V.
  8. Johnsingh, A. J. T.
  9. Kakati, Kashmira
  10. Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie ORCID logo
  11. Lamichhane, Babu Ram ORCID logo
  12. Lyngdoh, Salvador
  13. Madhusudan, M D ORCID logo
  14. Ul Islam Najar, Muneer
  15. Parida, Jyotirmayee
  16. Pradhan, Narendra M. B.
  17. Puyravaud, Jean-Philippe ORCID logo
  18. Raghunath, R.
  19. Rahim, P. P. Abdul
  20. Selvan, Muthamizh ORCID logo
  21. Subedi, Naresh
  22. Trabucco, Antonio ORCID logo
  23. Udayraj, Swati
  24. Wiegand, Thorsten ORCID logo
  25. Williams, Amirtharaj C.
  26. Goyal, Surendra P.

Download
ddi.12898.pdf 1,49MB
WeightNameValue
1000 Titel
  • Predicting range shifts of Asian elephants under global change
1000 Autor/in
  1. Kanagaraj, Rajapandian |
  2. Bastos Araújo, Miguel |
  3. Barman, Rathin |
  4. Davidar, Priya |
  5. De, Rahul |
  6. Digal, Dinesh K. |
  7. Gopi, G. V. |
  8. Johnsingh, A. J. T. |
  9. Kakati, Kashmira |
  10. Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie |
  11. Lamichhane, Babu Ram |
  12. Lyngdoh, Salvador |
  13. Madhusudan, M D |
  14. Ul Islam Najar, Muneer |
  15. Parida, Jyotirmayee |
  16. Pradhan, Narendra M. B. |
  17. Puyravaud, Jean-Philippe |
  18. Raghunath, R. |
  19. Rahim, P. P. Abdul |
  20. Selvan, Muthamizh |
  21. Subedi, Naresh |
  22. Trabucco, Antonio |
  23. Udayraj, Swati |
  24. Wiegand, Thorsten |
  25. Williams, Amirtharaj C. |
  26. Goyal, Surendra P. |
1000 Erscheinungsjahr 2019
1000 LeibnizOpen
1000 Publikationstyp
  1. Artikel |
1000 Online veröffentlicht
  • 2019-02-06
1000 Erschienen in
1000 Quellenangabe
  • 25(5):822-838
1000 FRL-Sammlung
1000 Copyrightjahr
  • 2019
1000 Lizenz
1000 Verlagsversion
  • https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12898 |
1000 Publikationsstatus
1000 Begutachtungsstatus
1000 Sprache der Publikation
1000 Abstract/Summary
  • AIM: Climate change alters the water cycle, potentially affecting the distribution of species. Using an ensemble of species distribution models (SDMs), we predicted changes in distribution of the Asian elephant in South Asia due to increasing climatic variability under warming climate and human pressures. LOCATION: India and Nepal. METHODS: We compiled a comprehensive geodatabase of 115 predictor variables, which included climatic, topographic, human pressures and land use, at a resolution of 1 km2, and an extensive database on current distribution of elephants. For variable selection, we first developed 14 candidate models based on different hypotheses on elephant habitat selection. For each candidate model, a series of 240 individual models were evaluated using several metrics. Using three climatic and one land use change datasets for two greenhouse gas scenarios, ensemble SDMs were used to predict future projections. RESULTS: Nine predictor variables were selected for ensemble SDMs. Elephant distribution is driven predominantly by changes in climatic water balance (>60%), followed by changes in temperature and human‐induced disturbance. The results suggest that around 41.8% of the 256,518 km2 of habitat available at present will be lost by the end of this century due to combined effects of climate change and human pressure. Projected habitat loss will be higher in human‐dominated sites at lower elevations due to intensifying droughts, leading elephants to seek refuge at higher elevations along valleys with greater water availability in the Himalayan Mountains. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Changes in climatic water balance could play a crucial role in driving species distributions in regions with monsoonal climates. In response, species would shift their range upwards along gradients of water availability and seasonal droughts. Conservation and management of elephant populations under global change should include design of movement corridors to enable dispersal of the elephant and other associated species to more conducive environments.
1000 Sacherschließung
lokal range shift
lokal Asian elephant
lokal climate change
lokal water balance
lokal seasonality
lokal species distribution modelling
lokal South Asia
lokal habitat loss
1000 Fächerklassifikation (DDC)
1000 Liste der Beteiligten
  1. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8562-8790|https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5107-7265|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/uri/QmFybWFuLCBSYXRoaW4=|https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2463-6743|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/uri/RGUsIFJhaHVs|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/uri/RGlnYWwsIERpbmVzaCBLLg==|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/uri/R29waSwgRy4gVi4=|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/uri/Sm9obnNpbmdoLCBBLiBKLiBULg==|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/uri/S2FrYXRpLCBLYXNobWlyYQ==|https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9269-4446|https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0580-7682|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/uri/THluZ2RvaCwgU2FsdmFkb3I=|https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1652-5242|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/uri/VWwgSXNsYW0gTmFqYXIsIE11bmVlcg==|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/uri/UGFyaWRhLCBKeW90aXJtYXllZQ==|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/uri/UHJhZGhhbiwgTmFyZW5kcmEgTS4gQi4=|https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7866-389X|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/uri/UmFnaHVuYXRoLCBSLg==|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/uri/UmFoaW0sIFAuIFAuIEFiZHVs|https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4960-7693|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/uri/U3ViZWRpLCBOYXJlc2g=|https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0743-3680|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/uri/VWRheXJhaiwgU3dhdGk=|https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3721-2248|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/uri/V2lsbGlhbXMsIEFtaXJ0aGFyYWogQy4=|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/uri/R295YWwsIFN1cmVuZHJhIFAu
1000 Label
1000 Förderer
  1. Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft |
  2. Ministerio de Educación, Cultura y Deporte |
  3. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service |
  4. International Elephant Foundation |
1000 Fördernummer
  1. 273837911
  2. CGL2015‐68438‐P
  3. F12APO1186
  4. -
1000 Förderprogramm
  1. -
  2. -
  3. Asian elephant program
  4. -
1000 Dateien
  1. Predicting range shifts of Asian elephants under global change
    Predicting range shifts of Asian elephants under global change
1000 Förderung
  1. 1000 joinedFunding-child
    1000 Förderer Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft |
    1000 Förderprogramm -
    1000 Fördernummer 273837911
  2. 1000 joinedFunding-child
    1000 Förderer Ministerio de Educación, Cultura y Deporte |
    1000 Förderprogramm -
    1000 Fördernummer CGL2015‐68438‐P
  3. 1000 joinedFunding-child
    1000 Förderer U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service |
    1000 Förderprogramm Asian elephant program
    1000 Fördernummer F12APO1186
  4. 1000 joinedFunding-child
    1000 Förderer International Elephant Foundation |
    1000 Förderprogramm -
    1000 Fördernummer -
1000 Objektart article
1000 Beschrieben durch
1000 @id frl:6419330.rdf
1000 Erstellt am 2020-03-25T13:39:20.539+0100
1000 Erstellt von 122
1000 beschreibt frl:6419330
1000 Bearbeitet von 25
1000 Zuletzt bearbeitet Mon Mar 08 15:20:59 CET 2021
1000 Objekt bearb. Mon Mar 08 15:20:58 CET 2021
1000 Vgl. frl:6419330
1000 Oai Id
  1. oai:frl.publisso.de:frl:6419330 |
1000 Sichtbarkeit Metadaten public
1000 Sichtbarkeit Daten public
1000 Gegenstand von

View source