Probabilistic assessment of adaptation options from an ensemble of crop models: a case study in the Mediterranean

  1. Ferrise, Roberto ORCID logo
  2. RUIZ RAMOS, MARGARITA ORCID logo
  3. Rodríguez, Alfredo ORCID logo
  4. Lorite, I.J.
  5. Pirttioja, N.
  6. Fronzek, S.
  7. Palosuo, T.
  8. Carter, T.R.
  9. Bindi, Marco
  10. Höhn, J.G.
  11. Baranowski, P.
  12. Buis, S.
  13. Cammarano, Davide ORCID logo
  14. Nendel, Claas ORCID logo
  15. Hlavinka, P.
  16. Hoffmann, Holger ORCID logo
  17. Jurecka, F.
  18. Kersebaum, Kurt Christian ORCID logo
  19. Krzyszczak, J.
  20. Lana, Marcos ORCID logo
  21. Mechiche-Alami, A.
  22. Minet, J.
  23. Montesino, M.
  24. Porter, J.R.
  25. Ruget, F.
  26. Steinmetz, Z.
  27. Stratonovitch, P.
  28. Supit, I.
  29. Tao, F.
  30. Trnka, Miroslav ORCID logo
  31. de Wit, A.
  32. Rötter, Reimund ORCID logo
  33. Y. Chen
  34. B. Dumont
  35. Ewert, Frank
  36. Gaiser, Thomas
  37. M. A. Semenov

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1000 Titel
  • Probabilistic assessment of adaptation options from an ensemble of crop models: a case study in the Mediterranean
1000 Autor/in
  1. Ferrise, Roberto |
  2. RUIZ RAMOS, MARGARITA |
  3. Rodríguez, Alfredo |
  4. Lorite, I.J. |
  5. Pirttioja, N. |
  6. Fronzek, S. |
  7. Palosuo, T. |
  8. Carter, T.R. |
  9. Bindi, Marco |
  10. Höhn, J.G. |
  11. Baranowski, P. |
  12. Buis, S. |
  13. Cammarano, Davide |
  14. Nendel, Claas |
  15. Hlavinka, P. |
  16. Hoffmann, Holger |
  17. Jurecka, F. |
  18. Kersebaum, Kurt Christian |
  19. Krzyszczak, J. |
  20. Lana, Marcos |
  21. Mechiche-Alami, A. |
  22. Minet, J. |
  23. Montesino, M. |
  24. Porter, J.R. |
  25. Ruget, F. |
  26. Steinmetz, Z. |
  27. Stratonovitch, P. |
  28. Supit, I. |
  29. Tao, F. |
  30. Trnka, Miroslav |
  31. de Wit, A. |
  32. Rötter, Reimund |
1000 Mitwirkende/r
  1. Y. Chen |
  2. B. Dumont |
  3. Ewert, Frank |
  4. Gaiser, Thomas |
  5. M. A. Semenov |
1000 Erscheinungsjahr 2017
1000 LeibnizOpen
1000 Publikationstyp
  1. Kongressschrift |
  2. Artikel |
1000 Online veröffentlicht
  • 2017-06-19
1000 Erschienen in
1000 Quellenangabe
  • 10(Supplement):SC-33
1000 FRL-Sammlung
1000 Übergeordneter Kongress
1000 Verlagsversion
  • https://ojs.macsur.eu/index.php/Reports/article/view/SC-33 |
1000 Publikationsstatus
1000 Begutachtungsstatus
1000 Sprache der Publikation
1000 Abstract/Summary
  • Uncertainty about future climate change impacts increases the complexity of addressing adaptation and evaluating risks at regional level. In modelling studies, such uncertainty may arise from climate projections, field data and crop models. Approaches are required for effectively quantifying climate impacts and the effect of adaptation options, managing inherent uncertainties and communicating the results. The latter will especially benefit from adding user-friendly visualizations.In this study, a probabilistic framework for evaluating the effect of feasible adaptation strategies for winter wheat in northern Spain was applied with an ensemble of crop models. First, adaptations response surfaces (ARSs) were created. These are bi-dimensional surfaces in which the effect of an adaptation option (e.g. changes in crop yield compared to the unadapted situation) is plotted against two explanatory variables (e.g. changes in temperature and precipitation). Based on these ARSs the most effective adaptations considered here were mainly based on wheat without vernalization requirements, current and shorter cycle duration and early sowing date. Other combinations of sowing dates and cycle duration were only promising and selected when a single supplementary irrigation was applied. Then, the likelihood of staying below a critical yield threshold with different adaptation measures was calculated using ARSs and probabilistic projections of climate change. The latter are joint probabilities of changes in the same explanatory variables used for drawing the ARSs. Therefore, for these options ARSs were constructed and probabilistic climate projections superimposed. Consequent probability of effectively adapting were discussed for several options.
1000 Fächerklassifikation (DDC)
1000 DOI 10.4126/FRL01-006413000 |
1000 Liste der Beteiligten
  1. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8236-7823|https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0212-3381|https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7987-1623|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/creator/TG9yaXRlLCBJLkou|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/creator/UGlydHRpb2phLCBOLg==|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/creator/RnJvbnplaywgUy4=|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/creator/UGFsb3N1bywgVC4=|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/creator/Q2FydGVyLCBULlIu|http://d-nb.info/gnd/1079245189|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/creator/SMO2aG4sIEouRy4=|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/creator/QmFyYW5vd3NraSwgUC4=|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/creator/QnVpcywgUy4=|https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0918-550X|https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7608-9097|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/creator/SGxhdmlua2EsIFAu|https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9811-5065|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/creator/SnVyZWNrYSwgRi4=|https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3679-8427|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/creator/S3J6eXN6Y3phaywgSi4=|https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1733-1100|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/creator/TWVjaGljaGUtQWxhbWksIEEu|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/creator/TWluZXQsIEou|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/creator/TW9udGVzaW5vLCBNLg==|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/creator/UG9ydGVyLCBKLlIu|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/creator/UnVnZXQsIEYu|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/creator/U3RlaW5tZXR6LCBaLg==|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/creator/U3RyYXRvbm92aXRjaCwgUC4=|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/creator/U3VwaXQsIEku|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/creator/VGFvLCBGLg==|https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4727-8379|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/creator/ZGUgV2l0LCBBLg==|https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3804-9964|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/creator/WS4gQ2hlbg==|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/creator/Qi4gRHVtb250|http://d-nb.info/gnd/137278721|http://d-nb.info/gnd/1147126089|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/creator/TS4gQS4gU2VtZW5vdg==
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1000 Erstellt am 2019-02-21T11:18:11.739+0100
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1000 Zuletzt bearbeitet Wed Jun 26 13:29:54 CEST 2019
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