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1000 Titel
  • Overview paper on comprehensive framework for assessment of error and uncertainty in crop model predictions
1000 Autor/in
  1. Wallach, Daniel |
  2. Thorburn, Peter |
  3. Asseng, Senthold |
  4. Challinor, Andrew |
  5. Ewert, Frank |
  6. Jones, James W. |
  7. Rötter, Reimund |
  8. Ruane, Alex |
1000 Erscheinungsjahr 2016
1000 Publikationstyp
  1. Artikel |
1000 Online veröffentlicht
  • 2016-09-01
1000 Erschienen in
1000 Quellenangabe
  • 8:C4.1-D
1000 FRL-Sammlung
1000 Copyrightjahr
  • 2016
1000 Verlagsversion
  • https://ojs.macsur.eu/index.php/Reports/article/view/C4.1-D |
1000 Publikationsstatus
1000 Begutachtungsstatus
1000 Sprache der Publikation
1000 Abstract/Summary
  • Crop models are important tools for impact assessment of climate change, as well as for exploring management options under current climate. It is essential to evaluate the uncertainty associated with predictions of these models. Several ways of quantifying prediction uncertainty have been explored in the literature, but there have been no studies of how the different approaches are related to one another, and how they are related to some overall measure of prediction uncertainty. Here we show that all the different approaches can be related to two different viewpoints about the model; either the model is treated as a fixed predictor with some average error, or the model can be treated as a random variable with uncertainty in one or more of model structure, model inputs and model parameters. We discuss the differences, and show how mean squared error of prediction can be estimated in both cases. The results can be used to put uncertainty estimates into a more general framework and to relate different uncertainty estimates to one another and to overall prediction uncertainty. This should lead to a better understanding of crop model prediction uncertainty and the underlying causes of that uncertainty. This study was published as (Wallach et al. 2016)
1000 Fächerklassifikation (DDC)
1000 DOI 10.4126/FRL01-006413230 |
1000 Liste der Beteiligten
  1. https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/creator/V2FsbGFjaCwgRGFuaWVs|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/creator/VGhvcmJ1cm4sIFBldGVy|https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7583-3811|https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8551-6617|http://d-nb.info/gnd/137278721|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/creator/Sm9uZXMsIEphbWVzIFcu|https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3804-9964|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/creator/UnVhbmUsIEFsZXg=
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