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1000 Titel
  • The economic impact of changes in climate variability on milk production in the area of Grana Padano
1000 Autor/in
  1. Cortignani, Raffaele |
  2. Dell’Unto, Davide |
  3. Acutis, Marco |
  4. Lacetera, Nicola |
  5. Pasqui, Massimiliano |
  6. Roggero, Pier Paolo |
  7. Dono, Gabriele |
1000 Erscheinungsjahr 2015
1000 Publikationstyp
  1. Kongressschrift |
  2. Artikel |
1000 Online veröffentlicht
  • 2015-05-11
1000 Erschienen in
1000 Quellenangabe
  • SP5-18
1000 Übergeordneter Kongress
1000 Copyrightjahr
  • 2015
1000 Verlagsversion
  • https://ojs.macsur.eu/index.php/Reports/article/view/SP5-18 |
1000 Publikationsstatus
1000 Begutachtungsstatus
1000 Sprache der Publikation
1000 Abstract/Summary
  • Adaptation to climate change calls for local responses. The impact of a 2020-30 climate scenario was assessed on a 54,000 ha Mediterranean district characterized by a variety of farming systems (FS), ranging from low-input rainfed (42% of the district area and 16% of the district net income) to high-input irrigated. Climate was generated with a Regional Atmospheric Modelling System nested into a full coupled atmosphere-ocean global simulation model, under the A1B emission scenario. Crop responses to climate were assessed using EPIC after calibration. The Temperature Humidity Index was used to assess the impact on dairy cow milk yield. Farmer choices were simulated on 13 representative FS by an hybrid model of supply, territory and farm. The adaptive choices were simulated through Discrete Stochastic Programming, fed by probability distribution functions output of crop and animal models. The expected decrease in spring rainfall (-33%) will affect hay-crop production and the net income (NI) of rainfed livestock farms (-5 to -12%). The increased summer temperature will affect dairy cows NI up to -5.9%. Rice production is expected to increase up to +10%. Overall, the NI of irrigated and rainfed farms will be -2.1% and -5.4% of the current NI respectively, with livestock FS being the most affected and rice and horticultural FS the most resilient. Results will provide an ideal mediating object for engaging policy makers and stakeholders in designing visionary adaptive strategies.
1000 Fächerklassifikation (DDC)
1000 DOI 10.4126/FRL01-006413539 |
1000 Liste der Beteiligten
  1. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2685-9783|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/creator/RGVsbOKAmVVudG8sIERhdmlkZQ==|https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1576-8261|https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2088-2744|https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0926-362X|https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7269-4334|https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0272-178X
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1000 @id frl:6413539.rdf
1000 Erstellt am 2019-03-26T11:52:53.271+0100
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1000 Zuletzt bearbeitet Thu Jan 30 17:28:05 CET 2020
1000 Objekt bearb. Mon Jun 17 09:00:23 CEST 2019
1000 Vgl. frl:6413539
1000 Oai Id
  1. oai:frl.publisso.de:frl:6413539 |
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