284-307-2-PB.pdf 1,03MB
1000 Titel
  • Within-season predictions of durum wheat yield over the Mediterranean Basin
1000 Autor/in
  1. Ferrise, Roberto |
  2. Moriondo, Marco |
  3. Pasqui, Massimiliano |
  4. Primicerio, Jacopo |
  5. Toscano, Piero |
  6. Semenov, Mikhail |
  7. Bindi, Marco |
1000 Erscheinungsjahr 2014
1000 Publikationstyp
  1. Kongressschrift |
  2. Artikel |
1000 Online veröffentlicht
  • 2014-06-27
1000 Erschienen in
1000 Quellenangabe
  • 3(Supplement):CP3-32
1000 Übergeordneter Kongress
1000 Verlagsversion
  • |
1000 Publikationsstatus
1000 Begutachtungsstatus
1000 Sprache der Publikation
1000 Abstract/Summary
  • Crop yield is the result of the interactions between weather in the incoming season and how farmers decide to manage and protect their crops. According to Jones et al. (2000), uncertainties in the weather of the forthcoming season leads farmers to lose some productivity by taking management decisions based on their own experience of the climate or by adopting conservative strategies aimed at reducing the risks. Accordingly, predicting crop yield in advance, in response to different managements, environments and weathers would assist farm-management decisions(Lawless and Semenov, 2005). Following the approach described by Semenov and Doblas-Reyes (2007), this study aimed at assessing the utility of different seasonal forecasting methodologies in predicting durum wheat yield at 10 different sites across the Mediterranean Basin. The crop model, SiriusQuality (Martre et al., 2006), was used to compute wheat yield over a 10-years period. First, the model was run with a set of observed weather data to calculate the reference yield distributions. Then, starting from 1st January, yield predictions were produced at a monthly time-step using seasonal forecasts. The results were compared with the reference yields to assess the efficacy of the forecasting methodologies to estimate within-season yields. The results indicate that durum wheat phenology and yield can be accurately predicted under Mediterranean conditions well before crop maturity, although some differences between the sites and the forecasting methodologies were revealed. Useful information can be thus provided for helping farmers to reduce negative impacts or take advantage from favorable conditions.
1000 Sacherschließung
lokal Climate Change
lokal Agriculture
lokal Food Security
1000 Fächerklassifikation (DDC)
1000 DOI 10.4126/FRL01-006413655 |
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1000 Erstellt am 2019-03-29T09:19:36.722+0100
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