Assessment of Eutrophication Abatement Scenarios for the Baltic Sea by Multi-Model Ensemble Simulations

  1. Meier, H. E. Markus
  2. Edman, Moa K.
  3. Eilola, Kari ORCID logo
  4. Placke, Manja
  5. Neumann, Thomas
  6. Andersson, Helén C.
  7. Brunnabend, Sandra-Esther ORCID logo
  8. Dieterich, Christian ORCID logo
  9. Frauen, Claudia ORCID logo
  10. Friedland, Rene ORCID logo
  11. Gröger, Matthias ORCID logo
  12. Gustafsson, Bo G.
  13. Gustafsson, Erik ORCID logo
  14. Isaev, Alexey ORCID logo
  15. Kniebusch, Madline ORCID logo
  16. Kuznetsov, Ivan ORCID logo
  17. Müller-Karulis, Bärbel ORCID logo
  18. Omstedt, Anders ORCID logo
  19. Ryabchenko, Vladimir ORCID logo
  20. Saraiva, Sofia ORCID logo
  21. Savchuk, Oleg ORCID logo

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WeightNameValue
1000 Titel
  • Assessment of Eutrophication Abatement Scenarios for the Baltic Sea by Multi-Model Ensemble Simulations
1000 Autor/in
  1. Meier, H. E. Markus |
  2. Edman, Moa K. |
  3. Eilola, Kari |
  4. Placke, Manja |
  5. Neumann, Thomas |
  6. Andersson, Helén C. |
  7. Brunnabend, Sandra-Esther |
  8. Dieterich, Christian |
  9. Frauen, Claudia |
  10. Friedland, Rene |
  11. Gröger, Matthias |
  12. Gustafsson, Bo G. |
  13. Gustafsson, Erik |
  14. Isaev, Alexey |
  15. Kniebusch, Madline |
  16. Kuznetsov, Ivan |
  17. Müller-Karulis, Bärbel |
  18. Omstedt, Anders |
  19. Ryabchenko, Vladimir |
  20. Saraiva, Sofia |
  21. Savchuk, Oleg |
1000 Erscheinungsjahr 2018
1000 LeibnizOpen
1000 Publikationstyp
  1. Artikel |
1000 Online veröffentlicht
  • 2018-11-28
1000 Erschienen in
1000 Quellenangabe
  • 5:440
1000 FRL-Sammlung
1000 Copyrightjahr
  • 2018
1000 Lizenz
1000 Verlagsversion
  • https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2018.00440 |
1000 Publikationsstatus
1000 Begutachtungsstatus
1000 Sprache der Publikation
1000 Abstract/Summary
  • To assess the impact of the implementation of the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) on the future environmental status of the Baltic Sea, available uncoordinated multi-model ensemble simulations for the Baltic Sea region for the twenty-first century were analyzed. The scenario simulations were driven by regionalized global general circulation model (GCM) data using several regional climate system models and forced by various future greenhouse gas emission and air- and river-borne nutrient load scenarios following either reference conditions or the BSAP. To estimate uncertainties in projections, the largest ever multi-model ensemble for the Baltic Sea comprising 58 transient simulations for the twenty-first century was assessed. Data from already existing simulations from different projects including regionalized GCM simulations of the third and fourth assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change based on the corresponding Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects, CMIP3 and CMIP5, were collected. Various strategies to weigh the ensemble members were tested and the results for ensemble mean changes between future and present climates are shown to be robust with respect to the chosen metric. Although (1) the model simulations during the historical period are of different quality and (2) the assumptions on nutrient load levels during present and future periods differ between models considerably, the ensemble mean changes in biogeochemical variables in the Baltic proper with respect to nutrient load reductions are similar between the entire ensemble and a subset consisting only of the most reliable simulations. Despite the large spread in projections, the implementation of the BSAP will lead to a significant improvement of the environmental status of the Baltic Sea according to both weighted and unweighted ensembles. The results emphasize the need for investigating ensembles with many members and rigorous assessments of models' performance.
1000 Sacherschließung
lokal ensemble simulations
lokal future projections
lokal climate change
lokal Baltic Sea
lokal nutrients
lokal uncertainties
lokal eutrophication
1000 Fächerklassifikation (DDC)
1000 Liste der Beteiligten
  1. https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/uri/TWVpZXIsIEguIEUuIE1hcmt1cyA=|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/uri/RWRtYW4sIE1vYSBLLiA=|https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7413-7497|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/uri/UGxhY2tlLCBNYW5qYQ==|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/uri/TmV1bWFubiwgVGhvbWFz|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/uri/QW5kZXJzc29uLCBIZWzDqW4gQy4=|https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7837-5820|https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7086-4881|https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8615-5702|https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3690-666X|https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9927-5164|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/uri/R3VzdGFmc3NvbiwgQm8gRy4=|https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4215-9322|https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2005-4949|https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1340-9783|https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5910-8081|https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5718-4726|https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4971-9441|https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3909-537X|https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6614-4443|https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3873-4662
1000 (Academic) Editor
1000 Label
1000 Förderer
  1. BONUS |
  2. FP7 Ideas: European Research Council |
  3. Svenska Forskningsrådet Formas |
  4. Stockholms Universitet |
  5. Havs- och Vattenmyndigheten |
  6. Federal Agency for Scientific Organizations |
  7. Russian Science Foundation |
  8. Leibniz-Gemeinschaft |
1000 Fördernummer
  1. Art 185
  2. -
  3. 942-2015-23; 214-2013-1449
  4. -
  5. 1:11
  6. 0149-2018-0014
  7. 14-50-00095
  8. -
1000 Förderprogramm
  1. BalticAPP (Well-being from the Baltic Sea–applications combining natural science and economics) project; Joint Baltic Sea research and development programme
  2. -
  3. Cyanobacteria life cycles and nitrogen fixation in historical reconstructions and future climate scenarios (1850–2100) of the Baltic Sea
  4. Strategic Marine Environmental Research Funds Baltic Ecosystem Adaptive Management (BEAM)
  5. Measures for marine and water environment
  6. -
  7. -
  8. Open Access Fund
1000 Dateien
1000 Förderung
  1. 1000 joinedFunding-child
    1000 Förderer BONUS |
    1000 Förderprogramm BalticAPP (Well-being from the Baltic Sea–applications combining natural science and economics) project; Joint Baltic Sea research and development programme
    1000 Fördernummer Art 185
  2. 1000 joinedFunding-child
    1000 Förderer FP7 Ideas: European Research Council |
    1000 Förderprogramm -
    1000 Fördernummer -
  3. 1000 joinedFunding-child
    1000 Förderer Svenska Forskningsrådet Formas |
    1000 Förderprogramm Cyanobacteria life cycles and nitrogen fixation in historical reconstructions and future climate scenarios (1850–2100) of the Baltic Sea
    1000 Fördernummer 942-2015-23; 214-2013-1449
  4. 1000 joinedFunding-child
    1000 Förderer Stockholms Universitet |
    1000 Förderprogramm Strategic Marine Environmental Research Funds Baltic Ecosystem Adaptive Management (BEAM)
    1000 Fördernummer -
  5. 1000 joinedFunding-child
    1000 Förderer Havs- och Vattenmyndigheten |
    1000 Förderprogramm Measures for marine and water environment
    1000 Fördernummer 1:11
  6. 1000 joinedFunding-child
    1000 Förderer Federal Agency for Scientific Organizations |
    1000 Förderprogramm -
    1000 Fördernummer 0149-2018-0014
  7. 1000 joinedFunding-child
    1000 Förderer Russian Science Foundation |
    1000 Förderprogramm -
    1000 Fördernummer 14-50-00095
  8. 1000 joinedFunding-child
    1000 Förderer Leibniz-Gemeinschaft |
    1000 Förderprogramm Open Access Fund
    1000 Fördernummer -
1000 Objektart article
1000 Beschrieben durch
1000 @id frl:6423513.rdf
1000 Erstellt am 2020-10-15T08:40:08.054+0200
1000 Erstellt von 21
1000 beschreibt frl:6423513
1000 Bearbeitet von 25
1000 Zuletzt bearbeitet Wed Nov 25 08:07:35 CET 2020
1000 Objekt bearb. Wed Nov 25 08:07:35 CET 2020
1000 Vgl. frl:6423513
1000 Oai Id
  1. oai:frl.publisso.de:frl:6423513 |
1000 Sichtbarkeit Metadaten public
1000 Sichtbarkeit Daten public
1000 Gegenstand von

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