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1000
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Abstract/Summary
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Background!#!Estimating COVID-19 mortality is impeded by uncertainties in cause of death coding. In contrast, age-adjusted excess all-cause mortality is a robust indicator of how the COVID-19 pandemic impacts public health. However, in addition to COVID-19 deaths, excess mortality potentially also reflects indirect negative effects of public health measures aiming to contain the pandemic.!##!Objectives!#!The study examines whether excess mortality in Germany between January 2020 and July 2021 is consistent with fatalities attributed to COVID-19 or may be partially due to indirect effects of public health measures.!##!Methods!#!Excess mortality trends for the period from January 2020 to July 2021 were checked for consistency with deaths attributed to COVID-19 in both the German federal states and districts of Rhineland-Palatinate. The expected monthly mortality rates were predicted based on data from 2015-2019, taking into account the population demographics, air temperature, seasonal influenza activity, and cyclic and long-term time trends RESULTS: COVID-19-attributed mortality was included in the 95% prediction uncertainty intervals for excess mortality in 232 of 304 (76.3%) month-state combinations and in 607 of 684 (88.7%) month-district combinations. The Spearman rank correlation between excess mortality and COVID-19-attributed mortality across federal states was 0.42 (95% confidence interval [0.31; 0.53]) and 0.21 (95% confidence interval [0.13; 0.29]) across districts.!##!Conclusions!#!The good agreement of spatiotemporal excess mortality patterns with COVID-19 attributed mortality is consistent with the assumption that indirect adverse effects from public health interventions to contain the COVID-19 pandemic did not substantially contribute to excess mortality in Germany between January 2020 and July 2021.
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1000
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Hinweis
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DeepGreen-ID: 567650cd84944793b1e0ce93dd5497a0 ; metadata provieded by: DeepGreen (https://www.oa-deepgreen.de/api/v1/), LIVIVO search scope life sciences (http://z3950.zbmed.de:6210/livivo), Crossref Unified Resource API (https://api.crossref.org/swagger-ui/index.html), to.science.api (https://frl.publisso.de/), ZDB JSON-API (beta) (https://zeitschriftendatenbank.de/api/), lobid - Dateninfrastruktur für Bibliotheken (https://lobid.org/resources/search)
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