Download
nhess-24-973-2024.pdf 9,42MB
WeightNameValue
1000 Titel
  • Thresholds for estuarine compound flooding using a combined hydrodynamic–statistical modelling approach
1000 Autor/in
  1. Lyddon, Charlotte |
  2. Chien, Nguyen |
  3. Vasilopoulos, Grigorios |
  4. Ridgill, Michael |
  5. Moradian, Sogol |
  6. Olbert, Agnieszka |
  7. Coulthard, Thomas |
  8. Barkwith, Andrew |
  9. Robins, Peter |
1000 Verlag
  • Copernicus Publications
1000 Erscheinungsjahr 2024
1000 Publikationstyp
  1. Artikel |
1000 Online veröffentlicht
  • 2024-03-21
1000 Erschienen in
1000 Quellenangabe
  • 24(3):973-997
1000 Copyrightjahr
  • 2024
1000 Lizenz
1000 Verlagsversion
  • https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-973-2024 |
1000 Publikationsstatus
1000 Begutachtungsstatus
1000 Sprache der Publikation
1000 Abstract/Summary
  • <jats:p>Abstract. Estuarine compound flooding can happen when extreme sea level and river discharges occur concurrently, or in close succession, inundating low-lying coastal regions. Such events are hard to predict and amplify the hazard. Recent UK storms, including Storm Desmond (2015) and Ciara (2020), have highlighted the vulnerability of mountainous Atlantic-facing catchments to the impacts of compound flooding including risk to life and short- and long-term socio-economic damages. To improve prediction and early warning of compound flooding, combined sea and river thresholds need to be established. In this study, observational data and numerical modelling were used to reconstruct the historic flood record of an estuary particularly vulnerable to compound flooding (Conwy, North Wales). The record was used to develop a method for identifying combined sea level and river discharge thresholds for flooding using idealised simulations and joint-probability analyses. The results show how flooding extent responds to increasing total water level and river discharge, with notable amplification in flood extent due to the compounding drivers in some circumstances, and sensitivity (∼ 7 %) due to a 3 h time lag between the drivers. The influence of storm surge magnitude (as a component of total water level) on the flooding extent was only important for scenarios with minor flooding. There was variability as to when and where compound flooding occurred; it was most likely under moderate sea and river conditions (e.g. 60th–70th and 30th–50th percentiles) and only in the middle-estuary zone. For such cases, joint-probability analysis is important for establishing compound flood risk behaviour. Elsewhere in the estuary, either the sea state (lower estuary) or river flow (upper estuary) dominated the hazard, and single-value probability analysis is sufficient. These methods can be applied to estuaries worldwide to identify site-specific thresholds for flooding to support emergency response and long-term coastal management plans. </jats:p>
1000 Liste der Beteiligten
  1. https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/uri/THlkZG9uLCBDaGFybG90dGU=|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/uri/Q2hpZW4sIE5ndXllbg==|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/uri/VmFzaWxvcG91bG9zLCBHcmlnb3Jpb3M=|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/uri/UmlkZ2lsbCwgTWljaGFlbA==|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/uri/TW9yYWRpYW4sIFNvZ29s|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/uri/T2xiZXJ0LCBBZ25pZXN6a2E=|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/uri/Q291bHRoYXJkLCBUaG9tYXM=|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/uri/QmFya3dpdGgsIEFuZHJldw==|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/uri/Um9iaW5zLCBQZXRlcg==
1000 Hinweis
  • DeepGreen-ID: d80ae9da2d424844960beece9267a761 ; metadata provieded by: DeepGreen (https://www.oa-deepgreen.de/api/v1/), LIVIVO search scope life sciences (http://z3950.zbmed.de:6210/livivo), Crossref Unified Resource API (https://api.crossref.org/swagger-ui/index.html), to.science.api (https://frl.publisso.de/), ZDB JSON-API (beta) (https://zeitschriftendatenbank.de/api/), lobid - Dateninfrastruktur für Bibliotheken (https://lobid.org/resources/search)
1000 Label
1000 Förderer
  1. Natural Environment Research Council |
1000 Fördernummer
  1. -
1000 Förderprogramm
  1. -
1000 Dateien
1000 Förderung
  1. 1000 joinedFunding-child
    1000 Förderer Natural Environment Research Council |
    1000 Förderprogramm -
    1000 Fördernummer -
1000 Objektart article
1000 Beschrieben durch
1000 @id frl:6482515.rdf
1000 Erstellt am 2024-05-24T05:43:02.648+0200
1000 Erstellt von 322
1000 beschreibt frl:6482515
1000 Zuletzt bearbeitet 2024-05-27T11:52:42.169+0200
1000 Objekt bearb. Mon May 27 11:52:42 CEST 2024
1000 Vgl. frl:6482515
1000 Oai Id
  1. oai:frl.publisso.de:frl:6482515 |
1000 Sichtbarkeit Metadaten public
1000 Sichtbarkeit Daten public
1000 Gegenstand von

View source