Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence

  1. Forster, Piers ORCID logo
  2. Smith, Christopher ORCID logo
  3. Walsh, Tristram ORCID logo
  4. Lamb, William F. ORCID logo
  5. Lamboll, Robin
  6. Hall, Bradley
  7. Hauser, Mathias ORCID logo
  8. Ribes, Aurélien ORCID logo
  9. Rosen, Debbie
  10. Gillett, Nathan ORCID logo
  11. Palmer, Matthew D.
  12. Rogelj, Joeri ORCID logo
  13. von Schuckmann, Karina ORCID logo
  14. Trewin, Blair
  15. Allen, Myles
  16. Andrew, Robbie ORCID logo
  17. Betts, Richard ORCID logo
  18. Borger, Alex
  19. Boyer, Tim
  20. Broersma, Jiddu A.
  21. Buontempo, Carlo ORCID logo
  22. Burgess, Samantha
  23. cagnazzo, chiara ORCID logo
  24. cheng, lijing ORCID logo
  25. Friedlingstein, Pierre ORCID logo
  26. Gettelman, Andrew ORCID logo
  27. Gütschow, Johannes ORCID logo
  28. Ishii, Masayoshi
  29. Jenkins, Stuart ORCID logo
  30. Lan, Xin ORCID logo
  31. Morice, Colin ORCID logo
  32. Mühle, Jens ORCID logo
  33. Kadow, Christopher ORCID logo
  34. Kennedy, John ORCID logo
  35. Killick, Rachel ORCID logo
  36. Krummel, Paul ORCID logo
  37. Minx, Jan Christoph ORCID logo
  38. Myhre, Gunnar ORCID logo
  39. Naik, Vaishali
  40. Peters, Glen ORCID logo
  41. Pirani, Anna ORCID logo
  42. Pongratz, Julia ORCID logo
  43. Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich ORCID logo
  44. Seneviratne, Sonia ORCID logo
  45. Szopa, Sophie ORCID logo
  46. Thorne, Peter ORCID logo
  47. Kovilakam, Mahesh ORCID logo
  48. Majamäki, Elisa ORCID logo
  49. Jalkanen, Jukka-Pekka ORCID logo
  50. van Marle, Margreet J. E. ORCID logo
  51. Hoesly, Rachel M.
  52. Rohde, Robert
  53. Schumacher, Dominik ORCID logo
  54. van der Werf, Guido ORCID logo
  55. Vose, Russell
  56. Zickfeld, Kirsten ORCID logo
  57. Zhang, Xuebin
  58. Masson-Delmotte, Valérie ORCID logo
  59. Zhai, Panmao

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1000 Titel
  • Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence
1000 Autor/in
  1. Forster, Piers |
  2. Smith, Christopher |
  3. Walsh, Tristram |
  4. Lamb, William F. |
  5. Lamboll, Robin |
  6. Hall, Bradley |
  7. Hauser, Mathias |
  8. Ribes, Aurélien |
  9. Rosen, Debbie |
  10. Gillett, Nathan |
  11. Palmer, Matthew D. |
  12. Rogelj, Joeri |
  13. von Schuckmann, Karina |
  14. Trewin, Blair |
  15. Allen, Myles |
  16. Andrew, Robbie |
  17. Betts, Richard |
  18. Borger, Alex |
  19. Boyer, Tim |
  20. Broersma, Jiddu A. |
  21. Buontempo, Carlo |
  22. Burgess, Samantha |
  23. cagnazzo, chiara |
  24. cheng, lijing |
  25. Friedlingstein, Pierre |
  26. Gettelman, Andrew |
  27. Gütschow, Johannes |
  28. Ishii, Masayoshi |
  29. Jenkins, Stuart |
  30. Lan, Xin |
  31. Morice, Colin |
  32. Mühle, Jens |
  33. Kadow, Christopher |
  34. Kennedy, John |
  35. Killick, Rachel |
  36. Krummel, Paul |
  37. Minx, Jan Christoph |
  38. Myhre, Gunnar |
  39. Naik, Vaishali |
  40. Peters, Glen |
  41. Pirani, Anna |
  42. Pongratz, Julia |
  43. Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich |
  44. Seneviratne, Sonia |
  45. Szopa, Sophie |
  46. Thorne, Peter |
  47. Kovilakam, Mahesh |
  48. Majamäki, Elisa |
  49. Jalkanen, Jukka-Pekka |
  50. van Marle, Margreet J. E. |
  51. Hoesly, Rachel M. |
  52. Rohde, Robert |
  53. Schumacher, Dominik |
  54. van der Werf, Guido |
  55. Vose, Russell |
  56. Zickfeld, Kirsten |
  57. Zhang, Xuebin |
  58. Masson-Delmotte, Valérie |
  59. Zhai, Panmao |
1000 Verlag Copernicus Publications
1000 Erscheinungsjahr 2024
1000 Publikationstyp
  1. Artikel |
1000 Online veröffentlicht
  • 2024-06-05
1000 Erschienen in
1000 Quellenangabe
  • 16(6):2625-2658
1000 Copyrightjahr
  • 2024
1000 Lizenz
1000 Verlagsversion
  • https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024 |
1000 Publikationsstatus
1000 Begutachtungsstatus
1000 Sprache der Publikation
1000 Abstract/Summary
  • <jats:p>Abstract. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Evidence-based decision-making needs to be informed by up-to-date and timely information on key indicators of the state of the climate system and of the human influence on the global climate system. However, successive IPCC reports are published at intervals of 5–10 years, creating potential for an information gap between report cycles. We follow methods as close as possible to those used in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One (WGI) report. We compile monitoring datasets to produce estimates for key climate indicators related to forcing of the climate system: emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers, greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, the Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, warming attributed to human activities, the remaining carbon budget, and estimates of global temperature extremes. The purpose of this effort, grounded in an open-data, open-science approach, is to make annually updated reliable global climate indicators available in the public domain (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11388387, Smith et al., 2024a). As they are traceable to IPCC report methods, they can be trusted by all parties involved in UNFCCC negotiations and help convey wider understanding of the latest knowledge of the climate system and its direction of travel. The indicators show that, for the 2014–2023 decade average, observed warming was 1.19 [1.06 to 1.30] °C, of which 1.19 [1.0 to 1.4] °C was human-induced. For the single-year average, human-induced warming reached 1.31 [1.1 to 1.7] °C in 2023 relative to 1850–1900. The best estimate is below the 2023-observed warming record of 1.43 [1.32 to 1.53] °C, indicating a substantial contribution of internal variability in the 2023 record. Human-induced warming has been increasing at a rate that is unprecedented in the instrumental record, reaching 0.26 [0.2–0.4] °C per decade over 2014–2023. This high rate of warming is caused by a combination of net greenhouse gas emissions being at a persistent high of 53±5.4 Gt CO2e yr−1 over the last decade, as well as reductions in the strength of aerosol cooling. Despite this, there is evidence that the rate of increase in CO2 emissions over the last decade has slowed compared to the 2000s, and depending on societal choices, a continued series of these annual updates over the critical 2020s decade could track a change of direction for some of the indicators presented here. </jats:p>
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1000 Liste der Beteiligten
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