Development and external validation of a head and neck cancer risk prediction model

  1. Smith, Craig David Leslie ORCID logo
  2. McMahon, Alex ORCID logo
  3. Lyall, Donald ORCID logo
  4. de Aquino Goulart, Mariel ORCID logo
  5. Inman, Gareth ORCID logo
  6. Ross, Al ORCID logo
  7. Gormley, Mark ORCID logo
  8. Dudding, Tom ORCID logo
  9. Macfarlane, Gary ORCID logo
  10. Robinson, Max ORCID logo
  11. richiardi, lorenzo ORCID logo
  12. Serraino, Diego
  13. Polesel, Jerry ORCID logo
  14. Canova, Cristina
  15. Ahrens, Wolfgang ORCID logo
  16. Healy, Claire M ORCID logo
  17. Lagiou, Pagona
  18. Holcatova, Ivana ORCID logo
  19. Alemany, Laia ORCID logo
  20. Znoar, Ariana
  21. Waterboer, Tim
  22. Brennan, Paul ORCID logo
  23. Virani, Shama ORCID logo
  24. Conway, David ORCID logo

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Smith-et-al_2024_Development and external validation of a head and neck cancer risk prediction model.pdf 1,75MB
WeightNameValue
1000 Titel
  • Development and external validation of a head and neck cancer risk prediction model
1000 Autor/in
  1. Smith, Craig David Leslie |
  2. McMahon, Alex |
  3. Lyall, Donald |
  4. de Aquino Goulart, Mariel |
  5. Inman, Gareth |
  6. Ross, Al |
  7. Gormley, Mark |
  8. Dudding, Tom |
  9. Macfarlane, Gary |
  10. Robinson, Max |
  11. richiardi, lorenzo |
  12. Serraino, Diego |
  13. Polesel, Jerry |
  14. Canova, Cristina |
  15. Ahrens, Wolfgang |
  16. Healy, Claire M |
  17. Lagiou, Pagona |
  18. Holcatova, Ivana |
  19. Alemany, Laia |
  20. Znoar, Ariana |
  21. Waterboer, Tim |
  22. Brennan, Paul |
  23. Virani, Shama |
  24. Conway, David |
1000 Erscheinungsjahr 2024
1000 LeibnizOpen
1000 Publikationstyp
  1. Artikel |
1000 Online veröffentlicht
  • 2024-06-08
1000 Erschienen in
1000 Quellenangabe
  • 46(9):2261-2273
1000 FRL-Sammlung
1000 Copyrightjahr
  • 2024
1000 Lizenz
1000 Verlagsversion
  • https://doi.org/10.1002/hed.27834 |
1000 Ergänzendes Material
  • https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/hed.27834#support-information-section |
1000 Publikationsstatus
1000 Begutachtungsstatus
1000 Sprache der Publikation
1000 Abstract/Summary
  • BACKGROUND: Head and neck cancer (HNC) incidence is on the rise, often diagnosed at late stage and associated with poor prognoses. Risk prediction tools have a potential role in prevention and early detection. METHODS: The IARC-ARCAGE European case–control study was used as the model development dataset. A clinical HNC risk prediction model using behavioral and demographic predictors was developed via multivariable logistic regression analyses. The model was then externally validated in the UK Biobank cohort. Model performance was tested using discrimination and calibration metrics. RESULTS: 1926 HNC cases and 2043 controls were used for the development of the model. The development dataset model including sociodemographic, smoking, and alcohol variables had moderate discrimination, with an area under curve (AUC) value of 0.75 (95% CI, 0.74–0.77); the calibration slope (0.75) and tests were suggestive of good calibration. 384 616 UK Biobank participants (with 1177 HNC cases) were available for external validation of the model. Upon external validation, the model had an AUC of 0.62 (95% CI, 0.61–0.64). CONCLUSION: We developed and externally validated a HNC risk prediction model using the ARCAGE and UK Biobank studies, respectively. This model had moderate performance in the development population and acceptable performance in the validation dataset. Demographics and risk behaviors are strong predictors of HNC, and this model may be a helpful tool in primary dental care settings to promote prevention and determine recall intervals for dental examination. Future addition of HPV serology or genetic factors could further enhance individual risk prediction.
1000 Sacherschließung
lokal Behaviors
lokal Epidemiology
lokal oropharyngeal cancer
lokal risk prediction
lokal model
lokal Head and neck cancer
lokal oral cancer
lokal Demographics
lokal risk
lokal laryngeal cancer
1000 Fächerklassifikation (DDC)
1000 Liste der Beteiligten
  1. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6465-7472|https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9425-7792|https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3850-1487|https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5263-6746|https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6264-4253|https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2952-3182|https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5733-6304|https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3756-040X|https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2322-3314|https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4491-6865|https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0316-9402|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/uri/U2VycmFpbm8sIERpZWdv|https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9381-1520|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/uri/Q2Fub3ZhLCBDcmlzdGluYQ==|https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3777-570X|https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0583-6360|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/uri/TGFnaW91LCBQYWdvbmE=|https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1366-0337|https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0945-6015|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/uri/Wm5vYXIsIEFyaWFuYQ==|https://frl.publisso.de/adhoc/uri/V2F0ZXJib2VyLCBUaW0=|https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0518-8714|https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1163-432X|https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7762-4063
1000 (Academic) Editor
1000 Label
1000 Förderer
  1. https://doi.org/10.13039/501100004966 |
  2. University of Athens Medical School |
  3. https://doi.org/10.13039/100007388 |
  4. https://doi.org/10.13039/501100003510 |
  5. https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000289 |
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  7. https://doi.org/10.13039/100010661 |
  8. https://doi.org/10.13039/501100003196 |
  9. Welcome Trust medical charity |
  10. https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000265 |
  11. https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000276 |
  12. https://doi.org/10.13039/100012095 |
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  16. https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000289 |
  17. https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000361 |
  18. National Health Service (NHS) |
  19. https://doi.org/10.13039/100010269 |
  20. https://doi.org/10.13039/501100020643 |
  21. https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000272 |
1000 Fördernummer
  1. QLK1-CT-2001-00182
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  4. 0180142s08
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  6. 315941-01
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1000 Dateien
  1. Development and external validation of a head and neck cancer risk prediction model
    Development and external validation of a head and neck cancer risk prediction model
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1000 Objektart article
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1000 Erstellt am 2025-01-17T12:45:21.389+0100
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