Findings on celestial pole offsets predictions in the second earth orientation parameters prediction comparison campaign (2nd EOP PCC)

  1. Winska, Malgorzata ORCID logo
  2. Kur, Tomasz
  3. Śliwińska-Bronowicz, Justyna
  4. Nastula, Jolanta
  5. Dobslaw, Henryk
  6. Partyka, Aleksander
  7. Belda, Santiago
  8. Bizouard, Christian
  9. Boggs, Dale
  10. Chin, Mike
  11. Dhar, Sujata
  12. Ferrandiz, Jose M.
  13. Gou, Junyang
  14. Gross, Richard
  15. Guessoum, Sonia
  16. Heinkelmann, Robert
  17. Modiri, Sadegh
  18. Ratcliff, Todd
  19. Raut, Shrishail
  20. Schartner, Matthias
  21. Schuh, Harald
  22. Kiani Shahvandi, Mostafa
  23. Soja, Benedikt
  24. Thaller, Daniela
  25. Wu, Yuanwei
  26. Xu, Xueqing
  27. Yang, Xinyu
  28. Zhao, Xin

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1000 Titel
  • Findings on celestial pole offsets predictions in the second earth orientation parameters prediction comparison campaign (2nd EOP PCC)
1000 Autor/in
  1. Winska, Malgorzata |
  2. Kur, Tomasz |
  3. Śliwińska-Bronowicz, Justyna |
  4. Nastula, Jolanta |
  5. Dobslaw, Henryk |
  6. Partyka, Aleksander |
  7. Belda, Santiago |
  8. Bizouard, Christian |
  9. Boggs, Dale |
  10. Chin, Mike |
  11. Dhar, Sujata |
  12. Ferrandiz, Jose M. |
  13. Gou, Junyang |
  14. Gross, Richard |
  15. Guessoum, Sonia |
  16. Heinkelmann, Robert |
  17. Modiri, Sadegh |
  18. Ratcliff, Todd |
  19. Raut, Shrishail |
  20. Schartner, Matthias |
  21. Schuh, Harald |
  22. Kiani Shahvandi, Mostafa |
  23. Soja, Benedikt |
  24. Thaller, Daniela |
  25. Wu, Yuanwei |
  26. Xu, Xueqing |
  27. Yang, Xinyu |
  28. Zhao, Xin |
1000 Verlag Springer Berlin Heidelberg
1000 Erscheinungsjahr 2024
1000 Publikationstyp
  1. Artikel |
1000 Online veröffentlicht
  • 2024-07-30
1000 Erschienen in
1000 Quellenangabe
  • 76(1):100
1000 Copyrightjahr
  • 2024
1000 Lizenz
1000 Verlagsversion
  • https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-024-02042-3 |
1000 Publikationsstatus
1000 Begutachtungsstatus
1000 Sprache der Publikation
1000 Abstract/Summary
  • <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>In 2021, the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS) established a working group tasked with conducting the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (2nd EOP PCC) to assess the current accuracy of EOP forecasts. From September 2021 to December 2022, EOP predictions submitted by participants from various institutes worldwide were systematically collected and evaluated. This article summarizes the campaign's outcomes, concentrating on the forecasts of the dX, dY, and dψ, dε components of celestial pole offsets (CPO). After detailing the campaign participants and the methodologies employed, we conduct an in-depth analysis of the collected forecasts. We examine the discrepancies between observed and predicted CPO values and analyze their statistical characteristics such as mean, standard deviation, and range. To evaluate CPO forecasts, we computed the mean absolute error (MAE) using the IERS EOP 14 C04 solution as the reference dataset. We then compared the results obtained with forecasts provided by the IERS. The main goal of this study was to show the influence of different methods used on predictions accuracy. Depending on the evaluated prediction approach, the MAE values computed for day 10 of forecast were between 0.03 and 0.16 mas for dX, between 0.03 and 0.12 mas for dY, between 0.07 and 0.91 mas for dψ, and between 0.04 and 0.41 mas for dε. For day 30 of prediction, the corresponding MAE values ranged between 0.03 and 0.12 for dX, and between 0.03 and 0.14 mas for dY. This research shows that machine learning algorithms are the most promising approach in CPO forecasting and provide the highest prediction accuracy (0.06 mas for dX and 0.08 mas for dY for day 10 of prediction).</jats:p> <jats:p><jats:bold>Graphical abstract</jats:bold></jats:p>
1000 Sacherschließung
lokal 6. Geodesy
lokal Celestial pole offsets (CPO)
lokal Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP)
lokal Full Paper
lokal Prediction
1000 Fächerklassifikation (DDC)
1000 Liste der Beteiligten
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